It’s been a fairly long time now since Bitcoin entered the world and changed it forever. Once thought of as everything from a scam to a hoax, today Bitcoin features among the investment portfolios of basically every major hedge fund in the world.
Still the most valuable and sought-after cryptocurrency today, in a market that now literally has tens of thousands of cryptocurrency options, Bitcoin commands the ability to single-handedly shift the market. However, Its volatility is also well-known and we’ve already seen that play out this year.
However, much of the data since has many analysts convinced that another bull run is on the cards. Despite general agreement on this, there isn’t much consensus on when that run will happen, with many experts now believing it may take longer than expected.
Growing Mainstream Adoption
Bitcoin has certainly come a long way since 2009. These days, Bitcoin is being more widely embraced as a payment method than ever. This is particularly prevalent among online services. In industries like online shopping sites and SaaS, many companies, including tech giants like Microsoft now accept it.
Meanwhile, industries like iGaming have been leading the charge by rapidly creating specialized platforms like Bitcoin casino dice platforms that accept it for a whole range of gambling games that can be played online. By leveraging Bitcoin’s underlying blockchain technology, these online betting platforms are able to offer better features like hassle-free sign up processes and even anonymous play.
While this has all been going on, crypto gaming has been rapidly evolving too. This phenomenon, which runs on blockchain technology and Web3 concepts, utilizes play-to-earn models to create games where players can earn crypto rewards. It’s been turning the gaming sector on its head with the likes of Sony already working on their own Web3 plans for gaming.
The Last Year in Focus
Almost a year has now passed since the point when Bitcoin fell to lows that saw it trading under $26, 000 at one point. Since then, it’s seen a remarkable rise that saw it breach the $73, 000 mark. However, having hit some really massive highs early on in 2024, the last couple of months have been far from kind to Bitcoin.
Many factors have contributed to the massive losses. For one, there’s been all the uncertainty around creditor payments from the Mt. Gox sell-offs. Then, there’s also been investor uncertainty amid the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and the constant state of geopolitical unrest caused by all the tension.
Since all this, the prevailing market sentiment does not anticipate another immediate bull run. At the moment, while more large gains are still very much on the cards for Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole, a variety of factors could swing things either way before that happens. For now, indicators like the Fear & Greed Index, which quantifies investor sentiment on a scale from 1 to 100, still mark it at 34.
This marks an identical mark to its position last year, indicating that fear is still pervading more than market optimism. Meanwhile, the total cryptocurrency market cap has seen a significant reduction, declining by over $300 billion since August alone.
Despite this, many investors do still see another major bull run on the horizon. At one point, many analysts predicted this would occur as soon as July or August. However, things don’t seem nearly as clear-cut anymore. With some believing it could happen by the end of the month, others feel it won’t even occur this year.
Prediction from an Industry Expert
Political influences aside, industry experts like Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, suggest the next crypto bull market might not begin until the end of September—a position that is now revised from a time when experts once predicted it would commence in August.
Hayes penned a detailed blog post in which he linked the delay in the bull market to broader economic conditions. This opinion was also broadly linked to decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve and government fiscal policies. According to Hayes’ analysis, macroeconomic factors are likely to play a crucial role in the timing and magnitude of the next crypto surge.
Federal Reserve Policies and Their Implications
The Federal Reserve’s actions will likely play a part too. This has become evident in the short-term U.S. interest-rate futures. Now leaning on a 0-basis-point rate cut in September, this number fell away from the more conservative 25-basis-point cut once predicted.
Hayes was quick to remind readers of the Fed’s decision to halt interest rate hikes last year September eventually led to an increase in US Treasury bond yields. Higher yields imply higher costs for the government to finance its deficit, potentially impacting the broader economy and market dynamics.
Hayes went on to elaborate on the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 5% (it now sits at 3.7%) and mentioned this as a factor that could act as a trigger for fluctuations in the market. If the increase were to occur, Hayes explained that it would depress stock and cryptocurrency markets temporarily.
However, in the long run, this would later act as a catalyst for a surge if it results in the government stepping in to create liquidity by reducing Treasury yields so it can finance its deficit at a lower cost. The lower rates would be a boon for the asset classes like cryptocurrencies and lead to a bull run.
The Impact of Bitcoin ETFs and Market Expectations
One of the major events that marked the crypto market’s performance this year was the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, which was cheered as a watershed moment by investors. This provided a pivotal moment for Bitcoin, driving its price to an all-time high of nearly $74,000 in March.
By July and August, Ether and Solana had both had their first spot ETFs too. These ETFs collectively amassed billions in inflows to these respective cryptocurrencies, sparking widespread expectations of a sustained bull market in the cryptocurrency sector. Despite this, many of those high expectations have not been realized.
Instead, the world has continued to see major political shifts and other global financial events. These have collectively taken their toll on the overall crypto market, and Bitcoin in particular. Among them, there have been major trade realignments brought on by ongoing tensions between the US and China, as well as major disruptions to global supply chains, many central bank rate adjustments to combat inflation, and price surges in key global markets like energy.
The Election
Among all of this, the impending US Presidential election has also begun having a more influential effect on the crypto market. While cryptocurrency has remained a fairly dormant role in previous elections, this one has finally seen it come to the fore in a major way as both parties seek to leverage it to different degrees.
Donald Trump on Crypto
Much of that has come courtesy of Donald Trump’s complete 180 on how he views them. The former President was once dismissive of Bitcoin. As reported by BBC, while speaking to Fox Business in 2021, Trump once said, “Bitcoin, it just seems like a scam… I don’t like it because it’s another currency competing against the dollar.”
Despite this, earlier this year, Trump suddenly shifted his view completely and has now publicly declared his support for the cryptocurrency industry. By vowing to oversee a cryptocurrency-friendly regulatory regime, Trump now views cryptocurrency as a means of strengthening the US economy.
This has made him a hero of the crypto industry with most of its biggest players now firmly backing him. However, in recent times, the election race notoriously also saw another huge shift in the last month.
The Democrats on Crypto
This came in the wake of Joe Biden being corralled into stepping down as the Democrat nominee by senior party members when it became apparent that he had no chance of beating Trump, after Biden’s catastrophic showing at the debate.
Kamala Harris has since taken his place and the race for the White House is now being seen as too tight to call. However, despite the surge of voter interest in Harris driving the Democrat’s chances again, she has yet to fully articulate any clear-cut position on how she would handle the industry if elected.
All of this has only added to the uncertainty surrounding the next crypto bull run since the Democrats have in the past indicated they favor heavily regulating the crypto industry.
However, as we’re currently seeing with the UK, overly stringent regulations could negatively impact the industry.
Conclusion
With the crypto market proving to be as volatile as ever this year already, many experts still envision another bull run soon. However, while dates and expected timelines are constantly being revised, much will also hinge on both domestic and global political events, the outcome of the current conflicts in places like Gaza, and the upcoming election.
According to crypto expert Arthur Hayes, we could see the commencement of the next crypto bull run as early as this month. However, others have been more circumspect, believing it will come toward the end of the year or the beginning of 2025.
Also Read: How to Play Online Blackjack with Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies
